League intelligence hub
Bundesliga
Verified competition context, market disagreement signals, and model-led fixture watchlists for Germany.
Season
2026
Analytical layer
Standings + market signals
Tracked matches
652
Fixtures captured inside the current competition scope.
Prediction accuracy
38%
Settled hit rate from the verified archive only.
Active predictions
0
Upcoming or live league fixtures currently covered by logged outputs.
Featured fixtures
Active competition fixtures ranked by confidence, edge, and current market interpretation.
No fixtures in this editorial bucket for the current filters.
Bundesliga intelligence snapshot
SportXG ranks current league signals using verified standings data and stored prediction-market gaps. xG-only layers stay hidden until a stable league feed is available.
62 logged predictions29 settled
Most stable favorite
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
88% model lean with 78 pt separation.
Most underpriced club
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig carries +27.1 pts of model edge.
Biggest market disagreement
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig
27.1 pts separate SportXG from the stored market.
Highest volatility team
FSV Mainz 05
Volatility score 90/100 across current tracked fixtures.
Strongest home advantage
RB Leipzig
Home points pace runs 3 points per game above away pace.
League environment
These league-wide signals describe the scoring climate, confidence climate, and disagreement profile around the current competition feed.
xG trend status
Expected goals environment
1.96 projected goals per fixture
Stable league-wide xG feeds are not available here, so SportXG uses stored projected scorelines as a proxy. Current projected goals sit at 1.96 per fixture versus — actual goals per match, a — goal gap.
Historical scoring tendencies
Scoring environment
—
Draws land at —, over-2.5 outcomes at 78%, and clean-sheet finishes at — across the currently stored competition record.
Model confidence environment
Model confidence environment
61%
The average selected probability is 61%, while 53% of tracked fixtures currently fall into the high-confidence bucket.
Market disagreement environment
Market disagreement environment
14.1 pts
Average model-vs-market disagreement currently runs at 14.1 pts, with 39% of tracked fixtures clearing the strong-disagreement threshold. The sharpest disagreement fixture is linked below through the featured card.
Attack and defense leaders
These table-driven leaders help frame which clubs are shaping the league's scoring environment most aggressively right now.
Strongest attack
Unavailable
—
Not enough stable league evidence is available to rank this signal yet.
Strongest defense
Unavailable
—
Not enough stable league evidence is available to rank this signal yet.
Match of the week
Market aligned
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
Highest conviction active fixture in the current league feed.
Strong confidenceLow volatility
Home88%
Draw9%
Away3%
Model vs market
Model
88%
Market
—
Edge
—
No odds snapshot
RB Leipzig to win
Biggest model disagreement
Strong market divergence
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig
Largest gap between SportXG and the stored market snapshot.
Strong confidenceLow volatility
Home63%
Draw18%
Away19%
Model vs market
Model
63%
Market
36%
Edge
+27.1 pts
SC Freiburg to win
High volatility fixture
Strong market divergence
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
Tight probability separation with elevated uncertainty.
Low convictionHigh volatility
Home38%
Draw36%
Away26%
Model vs market
Model
38%
Market
55%
Edge
-17.3 pts
FSV Mainz 05 to win
Key model insights
League-level watchlists and narratives prioritize what matters most, rather than stacking generic standings and fixtures equally.
Watchlist team
SC Freiburg
No recent watchlist signal is available from the current table and prediction archive.
Strongest home edge
RB Leipzig
3.00 point home-vs-away pace gap.
Editorial framing
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig is the clearest underpricing signal in the current archive, with the model holding a 27.1 point edge over the stored market.
RB Leipzig currently shows the strongest home advantage in the table data, outperforming its away points pace by 3 points per game.
Intelligence standings
This table stays grounded in official standings while layering model strength, volatility, and home-edge signals on top.
| # | Team | Played | GF | GA | GD | Points | Form | Model strength | Volatility | Avg edge | Home edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility36/100 | +9.9 pts | +1.00 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility58/100 | +17.4 pts | 0.00 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility47/100 | +22.1 pts | +3.00 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility59/100 | +3.6 pts | +3.00 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility68/100 | +9.2 pts | +1.50 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility61/100 | -9.8 pts | +2.50 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility49/100 | +27.1 pts | 0.00 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility71/100 | +11.3 pts | -2.00 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility65/100 | +2.3 pts | -1.00 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility90/100 | -3.6 pts | -2.50 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility71/100 | +7.5 pts | +0.50 | |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility50/100 | +8.0 pts | 0.00 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility41/100 | +11.8 pts | 0.00 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility50/100 | +19.2 pts | +2.00 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility54/100 | +22.9 pts | +2.50 | |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility71/100 | -5.3 pts | -0.50 | |
| 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility59/100 | -9.8 pts | -1.50 | |
| 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility78/100 | +8.5 pts | -0.50 |
