League intelligence hub
Premier League
Verified competition context, market disagreement signals, and model-led fixture watchlists for England.
Season
2026
Analytical layer
Standings + market signals
Tracked matches
810
Fixtures captured inside the current competition scope.
Prediction accuracy
52%
Settled hit rate from the verified archive only.
Active predictions
0
Upcoming or live league fixtures currently covered by logged outputs.
Featured fixtures
Active competition fixtures ranked by confidence, edge, and current market interpretation.
No fixtures in this editorial bucket for the current filters.
Premier League intelligence snapshot
SportXG ranks current league signals using verified standings data and stored prediction-market gaps. xG-only layers stay hidden until a stable league feed is available.
96 logged predictions42 settled
Most stable favorite
Manchester City vs Coventry
90% model lean with 83 pt separation.
Most underpriced club
Newcastle
Tottenham vs Newcastle carries +3.1 pts of model edge.
Biggest market disagreement
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
17 pts separate SportXG from the stored market.
Highest volatility team
Nottingham Forest
Volatility score 90/100 across current tracked fixtures.
Strongest home advantage
Everton
Home points pace runs 1.33 points per game above away pace.
League environment
These league-wide signals describe the scoring climate, confidence climate, and disagreement profile around the current competition feed.
xG trend status
Expected goals environment
1.58 projected goals per fixture
Stable league-wide xG feeds are not available here, so SportXG uses stored projected scorelines as a proxy. Current projected goals sit at 1.58 per fixture versus — actual goals per match, a — goal gap.
Historical scoring tendencies
Scoring environment
—
Draws land at —, over-2.5 outcomes at 47%, and clean-sheet finishes at — across the currently stored competition record.
Model confidence environment
Model confidence environment
60%
The average selected probability is 60%, while 42% of tracked fixtures currently fall into the high-confidence bucket.
Market disagreement environment
Market disagreement environment
10.1 pts
Average model-vs-market disagreement currently runs at 10.1 pts, with 3% of tracked fixtures clearing the strong-disagreement threshold. The sharpest disagreement fixture is linked below through the featured card.
Attack and defense leaders
These table-driven leaders help frame which clubs are shaping the league's scoring environment most aggressively right now.
Strongest attack
Unavailable
—
Not enough stable league evidence is available to rank this signal yet.
Strongest defense
Unavailable
—
Not enough stable league evidence is available to rank this signal yet.
Match of the week
Market aligned
Manchester City vs Coventry
Highest conviction active fixture in the current league feed.
Strong confidenceLow volatility
Home90%
Draw7%
Away2%
Model vs market
Model
90%
Market
—
Edge
—
No odds snapshot
Manchester City to win
Biggest model disagreement
Strong market divergence
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Largest gap between SportXG and the stored market snapshot.
Low convictionHigh volatility
Home15%
Draw42%
Away43%
Model vs market
Model
43%
Market
60%
Edge
-17.0 pts
Arsenal to win
High volatility fixture
Market aligned
Tottenham vs Newcastle
Tight probability separation with elevated uncertainty.
Low convictionHigh volatility
Home34%
Draw32%
Away34%
Model vs market
Model
34%
Market
31%
Edge
+3.2 pts
Newcastle to win
Key model insights
League-level watchlists and narratives prioritize what matters most, rather than stacking generic standings and fixtures equally.
Watchlist team
Newcastle
No recent watchlist signal is available from the current table and prediction archive.
Strongest home edge
Everton
1.33 point home-vs-away pace gap.
Editorial framing
Tottenham vs Newcastle is the clearest underpricing signal in the current archive, with the model holding a 3.1 point edge over the stored market.
Everton currently shows the strongest home advantage in the table data, outperforming its away points pace by 1.33 points per game.
Intelligence standings
This table stays grounded in official standings while layering model strength, volatility, and home-edge signals on top.
| # | Team | Played | GF | GA | GD | Points | Form | Model strength | Volatility | Avg edge | Home edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility85/100 | -17.0 pts | +1.00 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility66/100 | -17.0 pts | -1.33 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility73/100 | — | +1.00 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility31/100 | — | +1.33 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility67/100 | — | -0.17 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility72/100 | — | -1.33 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility40/100 | — | 0.00 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility58/100 | — | +0.83 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility78/100 | +3.1 pts | +0.17 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility54/100 | — | +1.17 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility69/100 | +3.1 pts | -0.17 | |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility62/100 | — | -1.00 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility69/100 | — | -1.33 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility59/100 | — | +0.67 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility61/100 | — | +0.50 | |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility80/100 | — | +0.17 | |
| 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility85/100 | — | +0.83 | |
| 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility82/100 | — | -0.33 | |
| 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility90/100 | — | -1.67 | |
| 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility56/100 | — | +1.33 |
