League intelligence hub
Premier League
Verified competition context, market disagreement signals, and model-led fixture watchlists for England.
Season
2025
Analytical layer
Standings + market signals
Tracked matches
750
Fixtures captured inside the current competition scope.
Prediction accuracy
—
Settled hit rate from the verified archive only.
Active predictions
9
Upcoming or live league fixtures currently covered by logged outputs.
Premier League intelligence snapshot
SportXG ranks current league signals using verified standings data and stored prediction-market gaps. xG-only layers stay hidden until a stable league feed is available.
9 logged predictions0 settled
Most stable favorite
Arsenal vs Burnley
85% model lean with 75 pt separation.
Biggest market disagreement
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
17.1 pts separate SportXG from the stored market.
Highest volatility team
Newcastle
Volatility score 98/100 across current tracked fixtures.
Strongest home advantage
Fulham
Home points pace runs 0.89 points per game above away pace.
Strongest trend shift
Arsenal
Cooling trend from the last five published form markers.
League environment
These league-wide signals describe the scoring climate, confidence climate, and disagreement profile around the current competition feed.
xG trend status
Expected goals environment
xG feed hidden
SportXG does not invent league-wide xG curves when a stable feed is not available. This section stays explicit about that gap.
Historical scoring tendencies
Scoring environment
2.85 goals per match
Draws land at 28%, over-2.5 outcomes at —, and clean-sheet finishes at 0% across the currently stored competition record.
Model confidence environment
Model confidence environment
53%
The average selected probability is 53%, while 11% of tracked fixtures currently fall into the high-confidence bucket.
Market disagreement environment
Market disagreement environment
9.3 pts
Average model-vs-market disagreement currently runs at 9.3 pts, with 22% of tracked fixtures clearing the strong-disagreement threshold. The sharpest disagreement fixture is linked below through the featured card.
Attack and defense leaders
These table-driven leaders help frame which clubs are shaping the league's scoring environment most aggressively right now.
Match of the week
Moderate market divergence
Arsenal vs Burnley
Highest conviction active fixture in the current league feed.
Strong confidenceLow volatility
Home85%
Draw10%
Away6%
Model vs market
Model
85%
Market
92%
Edge
-7.2 pts
Arsenal to win
Biggest model disagreement
Strong market divergence
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
Largest gap between SportXG and the stored market snapshot.
Moderate confidenceModerate volatility
Home31%
Draw26%
Away43%
Model vs market
Model
43%
Market
60%
Edge
-17.1 pts
Manchester City to win
High volatility fixture
Market aligned
Newcastle vs West Ham
Tight probability separation with elevated uncertainty.
Moderate confidenceHigh volatility
Home34%
Draw30%
Away36%
Model vs market
Model
36%
Market
—
Edge
—
No odds snapshot
West Ham to win
Key model insights
League-level watchlists and narratives prioritize what matters most, rather than stacking generic standings and fixtures equally.
Watchlist team
Manchester United
Cooling trend with model strength 64/100.
Strongest home edge
Fulham
0.89 point home-vs-away pace gap.
Editorial framing
Fulham currently shows the strongest home advantage in the table data, outperforming its away points pace by 0.89 points per game.
Arsenal owns the sharpest recent momentum profile in the tracked table, making it the current watchlist team for this competition.
Intelligence standings
This table stays grounded in official standings while layering model strength, volatility, and home-edge signals on top.
| # | Team | Played | GF | GA | GD | Points | Form | Model strength | Volatility | Avg edge | Home edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35 | — | — | — | 76 | WWLLW | Strength82/100 | Volatility25/100 | -7.2 pts | +0.50 | |
| 2 | 34 | — | — | — | 71 | DWWWD | Strength82/100 | Volatility88/100 | -17.1 pts | +0.72 | |
| 3 | 35 | — | — | — | 64 | WWWLD | Strength64/100 | Volatility88/100 | — | +0.72 | |
| 4 | 35 | — | — | — | 58 | LWWWL | Strength59/100 | Volatility— | — | +0.68 | |
| 5 | 35 | — | — | — | 58 | LLWDW | Strength57/100 | Volatility— | — | +0.67 | |
| 6 | 35 | — | — | — | 52 | WDWWD | Strength53/100 | Volatility88/100 | -17.1 pts | +0.28 | |
| 7 | 35 | — | — | — | 51 | WLDDD | Strength52/100 | Volatility72/100 | — | +0.61 | |
| 8 | 35 | — | — | — | 50 | LWDWW | Strength54/100 | Volatility66/100 | — | +0.72 | |
| 9 | 35 | — | — | — | 48 | LLLLL | Strength51/100 | Volatility88/100 | -3.6 pts | -0.17 | |
| 10 | 35 | — | — | — | 48 | DLLDW | Strength49/100 | Volatility84/100 | — | -0.17 | |
| 11 | 35 | — | — | — | 48 | LWDLW | Strength46/100 | Volatility66/100 | — | +0.89 | |
| 12 | 35 | — | — | — | 47 | DLLWW | Strength44/100 | Volatility84/100 | — | +0.67 | |
| 13 | 35 | — | — | — | 45 | WLLLL | Strength46/100 | Volatility98/100 | — | +0.67 | |
| 14 | 35 | — | — | — | 43 | WDWWD | Strength44/100 | Volatility66/100 | — | +0.78 | |
| 15 | 34 | — | — | — | 43 | LLDWD | Strength43/100 | Volatility72/100 | — | -0.11 | |
| 16 | 35 | — | — | — | 42 | WWWDW | Strength45/100 | Volatility88/100 | — | -0.28 | |
| 17 | 35 | — | — | — | 37 | WWDLL | Strength39/100 | Volatility88/100 | -3.6 pts | -0.78 | |
| 18 | 35 | — | — | — | 36 | LWDWL | Strength33/100 | Volatility98/100 | — | +0.11 | |
| 19 | 35 | — | — | — | 20 | LLLLL | Strength18/100 | Volatility25/100 | -7.2 pts | +0.17 | |
| 20 | 35 | — | — | — | 18 | DLLLD | Strength14/100 | Volatility66/100 | — | +0.44 |
Featured fixtures
Active competition fixtures ranked by confidence, edge, and current market interpretation.
Regular Season - 37
Manchester United
Nottingham Forest2026-05-17 19:30
NS
Moderate confidenceMarket aligned
Model output
Manchester United to win
46%No odds snapshot
Home46%
Draw35%
Away19%
Market view
Model46%
Market—
Edge—
No odds snapshot stored for this fixture.
Regular Season - 37
Brentford
Crystal Palace2026-05-17 22:00
NS
Moderate confidenceMarket aligned
Model output
Brentford to win
55%No odds snapshot
Home55%
Draw19%
Away26%
Market view
Model55%
Market—
Edge—
No odds snapshot stored for this fixture.
Regular Season - 37
Wolves
Fulham2026-05-17 22:00
NS
Moderate confidenceMarket aligned
Model output
Fulham to win
58%No odds snapshot
Home24%
Draw19%
Away58%
Market view
Model58%
Market—
Edge—
No odds snapshot stored for this fixture.
Regular Season - 37
Everton
Sunderland2026-05-17 22:00
NS
Moderate confidenceMarket aligned
Model output
Everton to win
50%No odds snapshot
Home50%
Draw34%
Away16%
Market view
Model50%
Market—
Edge—
No odds snapshot stored for this fixture.
Regular Season - 37
Leeds
Brighton2026-05-17 22:00
NS
Moderate confidenceMarket aligned
Model output
Leeds to win
56%No odds snapshot
Home56%
Draw23%
Away21%
Market view
Model56%
Market—
Edge—
No odds snapshot stored for this fixture.
Regular Season - 37
Newcastle
West Ham2026-05-18 00:30
NS
Moderate confidenceMarket aligned
Model output
West Ham to win
36%No odds snapshot
Home34%
Draw30%
Away36%
Market view
Model36%
Market—
Edge—
No odds snapshot stored for this fixture.
Regular Season - 37
Arsenal
Burnley2026-05-19 03:00
NS
Strong confidenceModerate market divergence
Model output
Arsenal to win
85%-7.2% edge
Home85%
Draw10%
Away6%
Market view
Model85%
Market92%
Edge-7.2 pts
Arsenal to win
Regular Season - 37
Bournemouth
Manchester City2026-05-20 02:30
NS
Moderate confidenceStrong market divergence
Model output
Manchester City to win
43%-17.1% edge
Home31%
Draw26%
Away43%
Market view
Model43%
Market60%
Edge-17.1 pts
Manchester City to win
Regular Season - 37
Chelsea
Tottenham2026-05-20 03:15
NS
Moderate confidenceMarket aligned
Model output
Chelsea to win
44%-3.6% edge
Home44%
Draw24%
Away32%
Market view
Model44%
Market48%
Edge-3.6 pts
Chelsea to win