League intelligence hub
Serie A
Verified competition context, market disagreement signals, and model-led fixture watchlists for Italy.
Season
2026
Analytical layer
Standings + market signals
Tracked matches
822
Fixtures captured inside the current competition scope.
Prediction accuracy
57%
Settled hit rate from the verified archive only.
Active predictions
7
Upcoming or live league fixtures currently covered by logged outputs.
Featured fixtures
Active competition fixtures ranked by confidence, edge, and current market interpretation.
Regular Season - 6
2026-10-11 18:30
Upcoming
Como
AS RomaModel output
AS Roma to win
71%
Strong confidenceStrong market divergence
Regular Season - 6
2026-10-11 21:00
Upcoming
Lecce
BolognaModel output
Bologna to win
37%
Low convictionStrong market divergence
Regular Season - 6
2026-10-11 21:00
Upcoming
Lazio
MonzaModel output
Lazio to win
78%
Strong confidenceStrong market divergence
Serie A intelligence snapshot
SportXG ranks current league signals using verified standings data and stored prediction-market gaps. xG-only layers stay hidden until a stable league feed is available.
102 logged predictions49 settled
Most stable favorite
Atalanta vs Venezia
80% model lean with 68 pt separation.
Most underpriced club
Udinese
Torino vs Udinese carries +41.9 pts of model edge.
Biggest market disagreement
Torino vs Udinese
41.9 pts separate SportXG from the stored market.
Highest volatility team
Cagliari
Volatility score 99/100 across current tracked fixtures.
Strongest home advantage
Sassuolo
Home points pace runs 2.67 points per game above away pace.
League environment
These league-wide signals describe the scoring climate, confidence climate, and disagreement profile around the current competition feed.
xG trend status
Expected goals environment
1.71 projected goals per fixture
Stable league-wide xG feeds are not available here, so SportXG uses stored projected scorelines as a proxy. Current projected goals sit at 1.71 per fixture versus — actual goals per match, a — goal gap.
Historical scoring tendencies
Scoring environment
—
Draws land at —, over-2.5 outcomes at 62%, and clean-sheet finishes at — across the currently stored competition record.
Model confidence environment
Model confidence environment
63%
The average selected probability is 63%, while 36% of tracked fixtures currently fall into the high-confidence bucket.
Market disagreement environment
Market disagreement environment
21.3 pts
Average model-vs-market disagreement currently runs at 21.3 pts, with 64% of tracked fixtures clearing the strong-disagreement threshold. The sharpest disagreement fixture is linked below through the featured card.
Attack and defense leaders
These table-driven leaders help frame which clubs are shaping the league's scoring environment most aggressively right now.
Strongest attack
Unavailable
—
Not enough stable league evidence is available to rank this signal yet.
Strongest defense
Unavailable
—
Not enough stable league evidence is available to rank this signal yet.
Match of the week
Strong market divergence
Atalanta vs Venezia
Highest conviction active fixture in the current league feed.
Strong confidenceLow volatility
Home80%
Draw12%
Away8%
Model vs market
Model
80%
Market
60%
Edge
+20.2 pts
Atalanta to win
Biggest model disagreement
Strong market divergence
Torino vs Udinese
Largest gap between SportXG and the stored market snapshot.
Strong confidenceLow volatility
Home16%
Draw12%
Away72%
Model vs market
Model
72%
Market
30%
Edge
+41.9 pts
Udinese to win
High volatility fixture
Strong market divergence
Cagliari vs Juventus
Tight probability separation with elevated uncertainty.
Low convictionHigh volatility
Home12%
Draw44%
Away45%
Model vs market
Model
45%
Market
60%
Edge
-15.5 pts
Juventus to win
Key model insights
League-level watchlists and narratives prioritize what matters most, rather than stacking generic standings and fixtures equally.
Watchlist team
Torino
No recent watchlist signal is available from the current table and prediction archive.
Strongest home edge
Sassuolo
2.67 point home-vs-away pace gap.
Editorial framing
Torino vs Udinese is the clearest underpricing signal in the current archive, with the model holding a 41.9 point edge over the stored market.
Sassuolo currently shows the strongest home advantage in the table data, outperforming its away points pace by 2.67 points per game.
Intelligence standings
This table stays grounded in official standings while layering model strength, volatility, and home-edge signals on top.
| # | Team | Played | GF | GA | GD | Points | Form | Model strength | Volatility | Avg edge | Home edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility32/100 | +20.2 pts | +2.00 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility99/100 | -12.2 pts | +0.67 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility99/100 | -15.5 pts | -1.50 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility44/100 | +34.1 pts | +1.25 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility— | — | -0.67 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility— | — | 0.00 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility— | — | +1.00 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility— | — | +1.00 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility99/100 | -15.5 pts | +0.83 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility35/100 | +18.8 pts | -1.00 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility99/100 | -12.2 pts | +0.50 | |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility71/100 | +6.4 pts | +1.33 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility35/100 | +18.8 pts | +1.17 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility— | — | +0.17 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility— | — | +1.33 | |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility44/100 | +34.1 pts | -0.67 | |
| 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility71/100 | +6.4 pts | +2.67 | |
| 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility44/100 | +41.9 pts | -1.33 | |
| 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility44/100 | +41.9 pts | -1.17 | |
| 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDL | Strength36/100 | Volatility32/100 | +20.2 pts | 0.00 |
