VerifiedOdds snapshotCorrect
Fixture 1379330
Premier League· Regular Season - 37
Final result
Aston Villa 4 - 2 Liverpool
Half-time
1 - 0
May 16, 2026, 03:00 GMT+8
Full-time
Fixture 1379330
Verified prediction result
Aston Villa entered as a narrow home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Prediction
Aston Villa to win
Model probability
46%
Market implied probability
34%
Value signal
+11.7 pts
Final result
Aston Villa 4 - 2 Liverpool
Settlement
Correct
Confidence bucket
Fragile confidence
Volatility level
Higher volatility fixture
Market divergence
Strong market divergence
Historical profile
Historical profile context was limited to the stored pre-match record.
Settlement confidence
High settlement confidence
Our prediction
Home win
Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.
Probability
46%
Value signal
+11.7%
Positive edge is computed from stored probabilities and stored odds snapshots.
Confidence signal
BucketFragile confidence
Probability and market view
Outcome probabilities
Aston Villa (1)46%
Draw (X)15%
Liverpool (2)39%
Model vs market
Aston Villa (1)2.96 · 46% / 34%
Draw (X)3.70 · 15% / 27%
Liverpool (2)2.16 · 39% / 46%
Settlement outcome
Predicted
Aston Villa to win
Correct
Final result
4 - 2
Value edge
+11.7 pts
NegativeFairPositive
Lineup & shape
Lineups unavailable for this fixture. SportXG only renders formation boards when the official starting elevens are returned by the feed.
Why the model leaned Aston Villa
Aston Villa entered as a narrow home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Primary signal
Model probability exceeded market implied probability by +11.7 pts.
Market view
Aston Villa is priced at 2.96, implying a market probability of 34%.
Model view
SportXG estimated Aston Villa win probability at 46%.
Interpretation
The model identified Aston Villa as slightly underpriced relative to the stored market snapshot.
Risk factors
Predicted win probability remains below the 50% confidence threshold.
Recent team context
Detailed recent-form signals were not stored for this fixture.
Hidden fields:
- recent form trend
- goals average
- home / away profile
- injury load
- clean-sheet profile
- head-to-head distribution
SportXG hides incomplete evidence instead of filling gaps with generated commentary.
Prediction lifecycle
1
Generated
May 13, 2026, 03:00 GMT+8
2
Stored
Append-only log entry #251
3
Compared with market
Odds snapshot stored
4
Settled
Aston Villa 4 - 2 Liverpool
5
Result
Correct
Competition
Premier League
Regular Season - 37
Model version
ml-v2
Prediction ID #251
Current injury list
Aston Villa
No current injury list available.
Liverpool
No current injury list available.
Match event timeline
Event timeline is unavailable for this fixture. SportXG hides match events until a real feed is stored.
Data availability
Lineups
No dataNot stored
Match events
No dataNot stored
Statistics
No dataNot stored
Odds snapshot
StoredStored before kickoff and used for model-vs-market comparison.
Unavailable feeds are shown explicitly so users can distinguish missing data from fabricated analysis.
Related intelligence
Use these internal routes to keep the fixture connected to its league hub, team intelligence pages, settlement history, and the live probability feed.
League hub
Premier League
Return to the league intelligence page for scoring environment, volatility, and market disagreement context.
Home team intelligence
Aston Villa
Open the team intelligence page for current profile, squad context, and tracked team signals.
Away team intelligence
Liverpool
Open the team intelligence page for away-side context, form profile, and tracked team signals.
Settlement history
Verified history
Inspect settled rows, hit-rate context, and append-only result records across the wider archive.
Research notes
Football intelligence notes
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Live probability feed
Probability board
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Related league fixtures
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