VerifiedOdds snapshotCorrect
Fixture 1489420
Verified prediction result
Croatia entered as a narrow home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability close to the stored market expectation.
Prediction
Croatia to win
Model probability
48%
Market implied probability
58%
Value signal
-10.3 pts
Final result
Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana
Settlement
Correct
Confidence bucket
Fragile confidence
Volatility level
Balanced volatility fixture
Market divergence
Strong market divergence
Historical profile
Historical profile context was limited to the stored pre-match record.
Settlement confidence
High settlement confidence
Our prediction
Home win
Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.
Probability
48%
Value signal
-10.3%
Stored odds imply no positive edge for the model pick on this fixture.
Confidence signal
BucketFragile confidence
Probability and market view
Outcome probabilities
Croatia (1)48%
Draw (X)22%
Ghana (2)30%
Model vs market
Croatia (1)1.71 · 48% / 58%
Draw (X)3.25 · 22% / 31%
Ghana (2)5.60 · 30% / 18%
Settlement outcome
Predicted
Croatia to win
Correct
Final result
2 - 1
Value edge
-10.3 pts
NegativeFairPositive
Lineup & shape
Lineups unavailable for this fixture. SportXG only renders formation boards when the official starting elevens are returned by the feed.
Why the model leaned Croatia
Croatia entered as a narrow home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability close to the stored market expectation.
Primary signal
Model probability exceeded market implied probability by -10.3 pts.
Market view
Croatia is priced at 1.71, implying a market probability of 58%.
Model view
SportXG estimated Croatia win probability at 48%.
Interpretation
The model identified Croatia as slightly underpriced relative to the stored market snapshot.
Risk factors
Stored market prices do not offer a positive edge on the model pick.
Predicted win probability remains below the 50% confidence threshold.
Recent team context
Detailed recent-form signals were not stored for this fixture.
Hidden fields:
- recent form trend
- goals average
- home / away profile
- injury load
- clean-sheet profile
- head-to-head distribution
SportXG hides incomplete evidence instead of filling gaps with generated commentary.
Prediction lifecycle
1
Generated
Jun 25, 2026, 05:00 GMT+8
2
Stored
Append-only log entry #490
3
Compared with market
Odds snapshot stored
4
Settled
Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana
5
Result
Correct
Competition
Unavailable
Group Stage - 3
Model version
ml-v2
Prediction ID #490
Current injury list
Croatia
No current injury list available.
Ghana
No current injury list available.
Match event timeline
Event timeline is unavailable for this fixture. SportXG hides match events until a real feed is stored.
Data availability
Lineups
No dataNot stored
Match events
No dataNot stored
Statistics
No dataNot stored
Odds snapshot
StoredStored before kickoff and used for model-vs-market comparison.
Unavailable feeds are shown explicitly so users can distinguish missing data from fabricated analysis.
Related intelligence
Use these internal routes to keep the fixture connected to its league hub, team intelligence pages, settlement history, and the live probability feed.
Home team intelligence
Croatia
Open the team intelligence page for current profile, squad context, and tracked team signals.
Away team intelligence
Ghana
Open the team intelligence page for away-side context, form profile, and tracked team signals.
Settlement history
Verified history
Inspect settled rows, hit-rate context, and append-only result records across the wider archive.
Research notes
Football intelligence notes
Read linked methodology, volatility, and market context notes that connect this fixture to the wider SportXG research graph.
Live probability feed
Probability board
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Related league fixtures
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No additional tracked fixtures are available from this league right now.