VerifiedOdds snapshotIncorrect
Fixture 1539002
Verified prediction result
Draw entered as a narrow draw favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Prediction
Draw
Model probability
46%
Market implied probability
29%
Value signal
+16.8 pts
Final result
Sweden 5 - 1 Tunisia
Settlement
Incorrect
Confidence bucket
Fragile confidence
Volatility level
Balanced volatility fixture
Market divergence
Strong market divergence
Historical profile
Historical profile context was limited to the stored pre-match record.
Settlement confidence
High settlement confidence
Our prediction
Draw
Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.
Probability
46%
Value signal
+16.8%
Positive edge is computed from stored probabilities and stored odds snapshots.
Confidence signal
BucketFragile confidence
Probability and market view
Outcome probabilities
Sweden (1)30%
Draw (X)46%
Tunisia (2)24%
Model vs market
Sweden (1)1.88 · 30% / 53%
Draw (X)3.40 · 46% / 29%
Tunisia (2)4.10 · 24% / 24%
Settlement outcome
Predicted
Draw
Incorrect
Final result
5 - 1
Value edge
+16.8 pts
NegativeFairPositive
Lineup & shape
Lineups unavailable for this fixture. SportXG only renders formation boards when the official starting elevens are returned by the feed.
Why the model leaned draw
Draw entered as a narrow draw favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Primary signal
Model probability exceeded market implied probability by +16.8 pts.
Market view
Draw is priced at 3.40, implying a market probability of 29%.
Model view
SportXG estimated Draw probability at 46%.
Interpretation
The model identified Draw as slightly underpriced relative to the stored market snapshot.
Risk factors
Predicted win probability remains below the 50% confidence threshold.
Recent team context
Detailed recent-form signals were not stored for this fixture.
Hidden fields:
- recent form trend
- goals average
- home / away profile
- injury load
- clean-sheet profile
- head-to-head distribution
SportXG hides incomplete evidence instead of filling gaps with generated commentary.
Prediction lifecycle
1
Generated
Jun 12, 2026, 14:24 GMT+8
2
Stored
Append-only log entry #434
3
Compared with market
Odds snapshot stored
4
Settled
Sweden 5 - 1 Tunisia
5
Result
Incorrect
Competition
Unavailable
Group Stage - 1
Model version
ml-v2
Prediction ID #434
Current injury list
Sweden
No current injury list available.
Tunisia
No current injury list available.
Match event timeline
Event timeline is unavailable for this fixture. SportXG hides match events until a real feed is stored.
Data availability
Lineups
No dataNot stored
Match events
No dataNot stored
Statistics
No dataNot stored
Odds snapshot
StoredStored before kickoff and used for model-vs-market comparison.
Unavailable feeds are shown explicitly so users can distinguish missing data from fabricated analysis.
Related intelligence
Use these internal routes to keep the fixture connected to its league hub, team intelligence pages, settlement history, and the live probability feed.
Home team intelligence
Sweden
Open the team intelligence page for current profile, squad context, and tracked team signals.
Away team intelligence
Tunisia
Open the team intelligence page for away-side context, form profile, and tracked team signals.
Settlement history
Verified history
Inspect settled rows, hit-rate context, and append-only result records across the wider archive.
Research notes
Football intelligence notes
Read linked methodology, volatility, and market context notes that connect this fixture to the wider SportXG research graph.
Live probability feed
Probability board
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Related league fixtures
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