Ligue 1R4Post-match

Stade Brestois 290 - 1Full-time · Half-time 0 - 1Paris Saint Germain

Sep 13, 2026, 18:45 UTCStade Francis-Le-Blé · Brest

Outcome prediction matched

Pre-match prediction:: Paris Saint Germain to win
Actual outcome:: Paris Saint Germain to win

Exact score did not match

Most likely pre-match score:: 1 - 2
Actual score:: 0 - 1

Match event timeline

Latest event first

88'
Substitution
Stade Brestois 29 · Bradley Locko · Assist: Justin Bourgault
87'
Yellow Card
Paris Saint Germain · Dro Fernández
Foul
84'
Yellow Card
Paris Saint Germain · Vitinha
Time wasting
78'
Substitution
Stade Brestois 29 · Kamory Doumbia · Assist: Djylian N'Guessan
78'
Substitution
Stade Brestois 29 · Joris Chotard · Assist: Lucas Tousart
77'
Substitution
Paris Saint Germain · Ferran Torres · Assist: Mika Godts
77'
Substitution
Paris Saint Germain · Warren Zaïre-Emery · Assist: Dro Fernández
66'
Substitution
Stade Brestois 29 · Giovani Versini · Assist: Joseph Nonge
66'
Substitution
Paris Saint Germain · Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · Assist: Désiré Doué
66'
Substitution
Paris Saint Germain · Ousmane Dembélé · Assist: Maghnes Akliouche
39'
Substitution
Paris Saint Germain · Achraf Hakimi · Assist: Fabián Ruiz
30'
Yellow Card
Stade Brestois 29 · Kamory Doumbia
Foul
5'
Goal
Paris Saint Germain · Ferran Torres · Assist: Ousmane Dembélé

Key match statistics

Stade Brestois 29Paris Saint Germain

41%Possession59%

1.24xG1.16

5Shots on Goal7

16Total Shots15

3Corners2

13Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

7Shots off Goal4

4Blocked Shots4

8Inside Box9

8Outside Box6

3Offsides1

Prediction evidence & recordPre-match record · independently reviewable

Why the model leaned Paris Saint Germain

A model preference is not a guarantee of the result.

Generated: Sep 10, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Stored: Append-only log entry #907
Model version: ml-v2-r2

Scorelines are evaluated over 90 minutes plus added time, excluding extra time and penalties.

SportXG Pre-match analysis archive

Pre-match view: Paris Saint Germain

The leading outcome is below 50%. This is an open contest, not a strong favourite.

Home win36.3%

Draw14.7%

Away win49.1%

Possible scorelines

Highest probability first

1 - 28.7%

1 - 17.5%

1 - 36.8%

All other scorelines: 77%. A single scoreline and a win/draw/loss outcome are different probabilities.

Recorded at Sep 10, 2026, 00:00 UTC

How to read this analysis

Outcome probabilities combine many possible scores. The most likely individual score can still be a draw when a team is more likely to win overall.

Data & prediction records

Pre-match predictions stay unchanged during and after play. Missing lineups or statistics mean unavailable coverage, not zero activity.

How to read this analysis · English

More matches to follow

Ligue 1 · Nov 8, 2026, 16:15 UTCStade Brestois 29 vs LyonUpcoming Ligue 1 · Nov 7, 2026, 20:05 UTCParis Saint Germain vs Estac TroyesUpcoming Ligue 1 · Nov 7, 2026, 18:00 UTCAuxerre vs Paris FCUpcoming Ligue 1 · Nov 8, 2026, 14:00 UTCRennes vs LilleUpcoming All fixtures

Stade Brestois 290 - 1Full-time · Half-time 0 - 1Paris Saint Germain

Match event timeline

Substitution

Yellow Card

Yellow Card

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Yellow Card

Goal

Key match statistics

Why the model leaned Paris Saint Germain