Ligue 1R4Post-match

Le Mans2 - 2Full-time · Half-time 2 - 1Lens

Sep 13, 2026, 15:15 UTCMMArena · Le Mans

Outcome prediction did not match

Pre-match prediction:: Lens to win
Actual outcome:: Draw

Exact score did not match

Most likely pre-match score:: 1 - 2
Actual score:: 2 - 2

Match event timeline

Latest event first

45+2'
Goal
Lens · Abdallah Sima · Assist: Florian Thauvin
45'
Substitution
Lens · Michaël Cuisance · Assist: Amadou Haidara
45'
Substitution
Le Mans · Noa Boissé · Assist: Djibril Sidibé
45'
Substitution
Lens · Odsonne Édouard · Assist: Franjo Ivanovic
44'
Goal
Le Mans · Lucas Calodat · Assist: Adil Bourabaa
38'
Yellow Card
Lens · Andrija Bulatović
Foul
32'
Goal
Le Mans · Adil Bourabaa
28'
Yellow Card
Le Mans · Jean Vercruysse
Foul
20'
Yellow Card
Lens · Michaël Cuisance
Foul
15'
Yellow Card
Le Mans · Noa Boissé
Foul

Key match statistics

Le MansLens

56%Possession44%

3Shots on Goal3

8Total Shots7

2Corners5

8Fouls5

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

240Accurate Passes192

7Inside Box6

1Outside Box1

2Blocked Shots2

5Free Kicks7

Prediction evidence & recordPre-match record · independently reviewable

Why the model leaned Lens

A model preference is not a guarantee of the result.

Generated: Sep 10, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Stored: Append-only log entry #903
Model version: ml-v2-r2

Scorelines are evaluated over 90 minutes plus added time, excluding extra time and penalties.

SportXG Pre-match analysis archive

Pre-match view: Lens

The leading outcome is below 50%. This is an open contest, not a strong favourite.

Home win42.3%

Draw15.2%

Away win42.5%

Possible scorelines

Highest probability first

1 - 27.6%

2 - 27.0%

All other scorelines: 85.4%. A single scoreline and a win/draw/loss outcome are different probabilities.

Recorded at Sep 10, 2026, 00:00 UTC

How to read this analysis

Outcome probabilities combine many possible scores. The most likely individual score can still be a draw when a team is more likely to win overall.

Data & prediction records

Pre-match predictions stay unchanged during and after play. Missing lineups or statistics mean unavailable coverage, not zero activity.

How to read this analysis · English

More matches to follow

Ligue 1 · Nov 8, 2026, 16:15 UTCLe Mans vs MonacoUpcoming Ligue 1 · Nov 8, 2026, 19:45 UTCLens vs MarseilleUpcoming Ligue 1 · Nov 7, 2026, 18:00 UTCAuxerre vs Paris FCUpcoming Ligue 1 · Nov 7, 2026, 20:05 UTCParis Saint Germain vs Estac TroyesUpcoming All fixtures

Le Mans2 - 2Full-time · Half-time 2 - 1Lens

Match event timeline

Goal

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Goal

Yellow Card

Goal

Yellow Card

Yellow Card

Yellow Card

Key match statistics

Why the model leaned Lens