Ligue 1R4Post-match

Rennes1 - 0Full-time · Half-time 0 - 0Marseille

Sep 11, 2026, 18:45 UTCRoazhon Park · Rennes

Outcome prediction matched

Pre-match prediction:: Rennes to win
Actual outcome:: Rennes to win

Exact score did not match

Most likely pre-match score:: 2 - 0
Actual score:: 1 - 0

Match event timeline

Latest event first

90+4'
Yellow Card
Marseille · Timothy Weah
Foul
88'
Substitution
Marseille · Igor Paixão · Assist: Faris Moumbagna
88'
Substitution
Marseille · Amine Gouiri · Assist: Tadjidine Mmadi
88'
Substitution
Marseille · Nayef Aguerd · Assist: Derek Cornelius
86'
Substitution
Rennes · Mousa Al-Tamari · Assist: Eliezer Mayenda
85'
Yellow Card
Marseille · Amine Harit
Foul
78'
Substitution
Rennes · Esteban Lepaul · Assist: Boulaye Dia
78'
Substitution
Rennes · Ludovic Blas · Assist: Sebastian Szymański
78'
Substitution
Marseille · Himad Abdelli · Assist: Neal Maupay
68'
Substitution
Rennes · Przemysław Frankowski · Assist: Bryan Reynolds
65'
Substitution
Marseille · Angel Gomes · Assist: Keyliane Abdallah
52'
Goal
Rennes · Adrien Thomasson
45'
Substitution
Rennes · Issa Soumaré · Assist: Mousa Al-Tamari
43'
Yellow Card
Rennes · Przemysław Frankowski
Argument
43'
Yellow Card
Marseille · Igor Paixão
Argument
33'
Yellow Card
Marseille · Himad Abdelli
Foul

Key match statistics

RennesMarseille

49%Possession51%

7Shots on Goal5

20Total Shots13

3Corners5

15Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

417Accurate Passes440

13Inside Box8

7Outside Box5

7Blocked Shots1

13Free Kicks13

Prediction evidence & recordPre-match record · independently reviewable

Why the model leaned Rennes

A model preference is not a guarantee of the result.

Generated: Sep 8, 2026, 02:53 UTC
Stored: Append-only log entry #845
Model version: ml-v2-r2

Scorelines are evaluated over 90 minutes plus added time, excluding extra time and penalties.

Odds snapshot

Rennes 2.15Draw 3.60Marseille 2.88

SportXG Pre-match analysis archive

Pre-match view: Rennes

The leading outcome is below 50%. This is an open contest, not a strong favourite.

Home win47.3%

Draw25.7%

Away win26.9%

Possible scorelines

Highest probability first

2 - 012.4%

1 - 012.2%

2 - 19.7%

All other scorelines: 65.7%. A single scoreline and a win/draw/loss outcome are different probabilities.

Recorded at Sep 8, 2026, 02:53 UTC

How to read this analysis

Outcome probabilities combine many possible scores. The most likely individual score can still be a draw when a team is more likely to win overall.

Data & prediction records

Pre-match predictions stay unchanged during and after play. Missing lineups or statistics mean unavailable coverage, not zero activity.

How to read this analysis · English

More matches to follow

Ligue 1 · Nov 8, 2026, 14:00 UTCRennes vs LilleUpcoming Ligue 1 · Nov 8, 2026, 19:45 UTCLens vs MarseilleUpcoming Ligue 1 · Nov 7, 2026, 18:00 UTCAuxerre vs Paris FCUpcoming Ligue 1 · Nov 7, 2026, 20:05 UTCParis Saint Germain vs Estac TroyesUpcoming All fixtures

Rennes1 - 0Full-time · Half-time 0 - 0Marseille

Match event timeline

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Goal

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Key match statistics

Why the model leaned Rennes

Odds snapshot