VerifiedOdds snapshotIncorrect
Fixture 1554441
UEFA Europa League· 1st Qualifying Round
Final result
CSKA Sofia 3 - 2 Derry City
Half-time
2 - 1
Jul 10, 2026, 02:00 GMT+8
Full-time
Fixture 1554441
Verified prediction result
Draw entered as a narrow draw favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Prediction
Draw
Model probability
49%
Market implied probability
22%
Value signal
+27.5 pts
Final result
CSKA Sofia 3 - 2 Derry City
Settlement
Incorrect
Confidence bucket
Fragile confidence
Volatility level
Balanced volatility fixture
Market divergence
Strong market divergence
Historical profile
Historical profile context was limited to the stored pre-match record.
Settlement confidence
High settlement confidence
Our prediction
Draw
Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.
Probability
49%
Value signal
+27.5%
Positive edge is computed from stored probabilities and stored odds snapshots.
Confidence signal
BucketFragile confidence
Probability and market view
Outcome probabilities
CSKA Sofia (1)31%
Draw (X)49%
Derry City (2)20%
Model vs market
CSKA Sofia (1)1.30 · 31% / 77%
Draw (X)4.60 · 49% / 22%
Derry City (2)9.00 · 20% / 11%
Settlement outcome
Predicted
Draw
Incorrect
Final result
3 - 2
Value edge
+27.5 pts
NegativeFairPositive
Lineup & shape
Lineups unavailable for this fixture. SportXG only renders formation boards when the official starting elevens are returned by the feed.
Why the model leaned draw
Draw entered as a narrow draw favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Primary signal
Model probability exceeded market implied probability by +27.5 pts.
Market view
Draw is priced at 4.60, implying a market probability of 22%.
Model view
SportXG estimated Draw probability at 49%.
Interpretation
The model identified Draw as slightly underpriced relative to the stored market snapshot.
Risk factors
Predicted win probability remains below the 50% confidence threshold.
Recent team context
Detailed recent-form signals were not stored for this fixture.
Hidden fields:
- recent form trend
- goals average
- home / away profile
- injury load
- clean-sheet profile
- head-to-head distribution
SportXG hides incomplete evidence instead of filling gaps with generated commentary.
Prediction lifecycle
1
Generated
Jul 7, 2026, 04:30 GMT+8
2
Stored
Append-only log entry #537
3
Compared with market
Odds snapshot stored
4
Settled
CSKA Sofia 3 - 2 Derry City
5
Result
Incorrect
Competition
UEFA Europa League
1st Qualifying Round
Model version
ml-v2
Prediction ID #537
Current injury list
CSKA Sofia
No current injury list available.
Derry City
No current injury list available.
Match event timeline
Event timeline is unavailable for this fixture. SportXG hides match events until a real feed is stored.
Data availability
Lineups
No dataNot stored
Match events
No dataNot stored
Statistics
No dataNot stored
Odds snapshot
StoredStored before kickoff and used for model-vs-market comparison.
Unavailable feeds are shown explicitly so users can distinguish missing data from fabricated analysis.
Related intelligence
Use these internal routes to keep the fixture connected to its league hub, team intelligence pages, settlement history, and the live probability feed.
League hub
UEFA Europa League
Return to the league intelligence page for scoring environment, volatility, and market disagreement context.
Home team intelligence
CSKA Sofia
Open the team intelligence page for current profile, squad context, and tracked team signals.
Away team intelligence
Derry City
Open the team intelligence page for away-side context, form profile, and tracked team signals.
Settlement history
Verified history
Inspect settled rows, hit-rate context, and append-only result records across the wider archive.
Research notes
Football intelligence notes
Read linked methodology, volatility, and market context notes that connect this fixture to the wider SportXG research graph.
Live probability feed
Probability board
Move back to the main probability board to compare this fixture against the rest of the active slate.
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