J1 LeagueR8Post-match

Avispa Fukuoka0 - 1Full-time · Half-time 0 - 0Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sep 19, 2026, 09:00 UTCBest Denki Stadium · Fukuoka

Outcome prediction matched

Pre-match prediction:: Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win
Actual outcome:: Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win

Exact score did not match

Most likely pre-match score:: 1 - 1
Actual score:: 0 - 1

Match event timeline

Latest event first

90+4'
Goal cancelled
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Takumu Kawamura
90'
Substitution
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Shun Ayukawa · Assist: Naoki Maeda
83'
Substitution
Avispa Fukuoka · Keiya Shiihashi · Assist: Oriol Romeu
82'
Substitution
Avispa Fukuoka · Yota Maejima · Assist: Ichika Maeda
76'
Substitution
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Mutsuki Kato · Assist: Takumu Kawamura
72'
Substitution
Avispa Fukuoka · Yuma Tsujioka · Assist: Yu Hashimoto
68'
Goal
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Shunki Higashi · Assist: Shimon Kobayashi
58'
Substitution
Avispa Fukuoka · Masato Shigemi · Assist: Daiki Miya
58'
Substitution
Avispa Fukuoka · Kaoru Yamawaki · Assist: Masato Yuzawa
45+6'
Red Card
Avispa Fukuoka · Tomoya Miki
45'
Substitution
Avispa Fukuoka · Yuji Kitajima · Assist: Shintaro Nago
45'
Substitution
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Sota Koshimichi · Assist: Shimon Kobayashi
36'
Yellow Card
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Daiki Suga
Foul
32'
Yellow Card
Avispa Fukuoka · Tomoya Miki
Foul
30'
Substitution
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Taishi Matsumoto · Assist: Daiki Suga
24'
Red Card
Avispa Fukuoka · Takumi Kamijima
Violent Conduct
23'
Card upgrade confirmed
Avispa Fukuoka · Takumi Kamijima
19'
Yellow Card
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Akito Suzuki
Foul
16'
Card upgrade confirmed
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Akito Suzuki
11'
Yellow Card
Avispa Fukuoka · Kaoru Yamawaki
Foul

Key match statistics

Avispa FukuokaSanfrecce Hiroshima

16%Possession84%

0Shots on Goal11

3Total Shots32

2Corners16

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

2Red Cards0

69Accurate Passes682

2Inside Box25

1Outside Box7

1Blocked Shots11

7Free Kicks12

Prediction evidence & recordPre-match record · independently reviewable

Why the model leaned Sanfrecce Hiroshima

A model preference is not a guarantee of the result.

Generated: Sep 16, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Stored: Append-only log entry #964
Model version: ml-v2-r2

Scorelines are evaluated over 90 minutes plus added time, excluding extra time and penalties.

SportXG Pre-match analysis archive

Pre-match view: Sanfrecce Hiroshima

The leading outcome is below 50%. This is an open contest, not a strong favourite.

Home win30.5%

Draw21.5%

Away win48%

Possible scorelines

Highest probability first

1 - 110.1%

1 - 29.6%

0 - 17.8%

All other scorelines: 72.5%. A single scoreline and a win/draw/loss outcome are different probabilities.

Recorded at Sep 16, 2026, 00:00 UTC

How to read this analysis

Outcome probabilities combine many possible scores. The most likely individual score can still be a draw when a team is more likely to win overall.

Data & prediction records

Pre-match predictions stay unchanged during and after play. Missing lineups or statistics mean unavailable coverage, not zero activity.

How to read this analysis · English

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Avispa Fukuoka0 - 1Full-time · Half-time 0 - 0Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Match event timeline

Goal cancelled

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Goal

Substitution

Substitution

Red Card

Substitution

Substitution

Yellow Card

Yellow Card

Substitution

Red Card

Card upgrade confirmed

Yellow Card

Card upgrade confirmed

Yellow Card

Key match statistics

Why the model leaned Sanfrecce Hiroshima