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Preparing probability logs, settlement summaries, and match context.

Manchester City vs Brighton Probabilities, Market Context & Prediction Lifecycle | SportXG

Premier LeagueR9Post-match

Manchester City0 - 1Full-time · Half-time 0 - 1Brighton

Oct 31, 2026, 15:00 UTCEtihad Stadium · Manchester

Outcome prediction did not match

Pre-match prediction:: Manchester City to win
Actual outcome:: Brighton to win

Exact score did not match

Most likely pre-match score:: 2 - 1
Actual score:: 0 - 1

Match event timeline

Latest event first

84'
Substitution
Brighton · Diego Gomez · Assist: Georginio Rutter
81'
Yellow Card
Brighton · Pascal Groß
Foul
79'
Substitution
Manchester City · Iliman Ndiaye · Assist: Allan Andrade Elias
79'
Substitution
Manchester City · Josko Gvardiol · Assist: Phil Foden
72'
Substitution
Brighton · Maxim De Cuyper · Assist: Malick Yalcouyé
72'
Substitution
Brighton · Charalampos Kostoulas · Assist: Jack Hinshelwood
64'
Substitution
Brighton · Olivier Boscagli · Assist: Jaouen Hadjam
64'
Substitution
Brighton · Chema Andrés · Assist: Mats Wieffer
64'
Substitution
Manchester City · Enzo Fernández · Assist: Nico O'Reilly
55'
Substitution
Manchester City · Ayyoub Bouaddi · Assist: Rayan Cherki
49'
Yellow Card
Brighton · Maxim De Cuyper
Foul
20'
Yellow Card
Brighton · Chema Andrés
Foul
11'
Goal
Brighton · Yasin Ayari · Assist: Maxim De Cuyper

Key match statistics

Manchester CityBrighton

62%Possession38%

1.68xG1.02

6Shots on Goal3

21Total Shots7

8Corners2

9Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

518Accurate Passes285

19Inside Box6

2Outside Box1

8Blocked Shots1

Prediction evidence & recordPre-match record · independently reviewable

Why the model leaned Manchester City

A model preference is not a guarantee of the result.

Generated: Oct 28, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Stored: Append-only log entry #1241
Model version: ml-v2-r2

Scorelines are evaluated over 90 minutes plus added time, excluding extra time and penalties.