Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.Correct
Jul 10, 2026, 04:00 GMT+8
Full-time
Our prediction
Home win
Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.
Probability
43%
Value signal
-34.4%
Stored odds imply no positive edge for the model pick on this fixture.
Confidence signal
BucketFragile confidence
Probability and market view
Outcome probabilities
France (1)43%
Draw (X)31%
Morocco (2)26%
Model vs market
France (1)1.54 · 43% / 61%
Draw (X)3.80 · 31% / 25%
Morocco (2)6.25 · 26% / 15%
Settlement outcome
Predicted
France to win
Correct
Final result
2 - 0
Value edge
-18.0 pts
NegativeFairPositive
Why the model leaned France
France entered as a narrow home favorite. SportXG estimated the home win probability close to the stored market expectation.
Primary signal
43% vs 61% (-18.0 pts)
Market view
France is priced at 1.54, implying a market probability of 65%.
Model view
SportXG estimated France win probability at 43%.
Interpretation
Stored market prices do not offer a positive edge on the model pick.
Risk factors
Stored market prices do not offer a positive edge on the model pick.
Predicted win probability remains below the 50% confidence threshold.
Recent team context
Recent form trend
Last 5
France
LLWWW
Unavailable
Morocco
LWDWW
Unavailable
Goals average
France
2.0
vs
Morocco
1.8
Home profile
Unavailable
Away profile
Unavailable
Head-to-head distribution
Home wins
1
Draws
0
Away wins
0
Secondary model outputs
Projected score paths
Primary scoreline1 - 0
1 - 014%
0 - 114%
0 - 014%
Match environment
VenueGillette Stadium
CityBoston
Referee—
Related intelligence
Use these internal routes to keep the fixture connected to its league hub, team intelligence pages, settlement history, and the live probability feed.
Home team intelligence
France
Open the team intelligence page for current profile, squad context, and tracked team signals.
Away team intelligence
Morocco
Open the team intelligence page for away-side context, form profile, and tracked team signals.
Settlement history
Verified history
Inspect settled rows, hit-rate context, and append-only result records across the wider archive.
Research notes
Football intelligence notes
Read linked methodology, volatility, and market context notes that connect this fixture to the wider SportXG research graph.
Live probability feed
Probability board
Move back to the main probability board to compare this fixture against the rest of the active slate.
Related league fixtures
These nearby league fixtures help connect the current match to the wider competition slate and keep the prediction graph navigable.
No additional tracked fixtures are available from this league right now.