Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.Incorrect
Jul 12, 2026, 05:00 GMT+8
After extra time
Our prediction
Draw
Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.
Probability
46%
Value signal
+64.6%
Positive edge is computed from stored probabilities and stored odds snapshots.
Confidence signal
BucketFragile confidence
Probability and market view
Outcome probabilities
Norway (1)33%
Draw (X)46%
England (2)21%
Model vs market
Norway (1)4.00 · 33% / 23%
Draw (X)3.55 · 46% / 26%
England (2)1.84 · 21% / 51%
Settlement outcome
Predicted
Draw
Incorrect
Final result
1 - 2
Value edge
+20.2 pts
NegativeFairPositive
Why the model leaned draw
Draw entered as a narrow draw favorite. SportXG estimated the draw win probability above the stored market expectation.
Primary signal
46% vs 26% (+20.2 pts)
Market view
Draw is priced at 3.55, implying a market probability of 28%.
Model view
SportXG estimated Draw probability at 46%.
Interpretation
The model identified Draw as slightly underpriced relative to the stored market snapshot.
Risk factors
Predicted win probability remains below the 50% confidence threshold.
Recent team context
Recent form trend
Last 5
Norway
LWWLW
Unavailable
England
WLWWW
Unavailable
Goals average
Norway
1.8
vs
England
2.6
Home profile
Unavailable
Away profile
Unavailable
Head-to-head distribution
Home wins
0
Draws
0
Away wins
1
Secondary model outputs
Projected score paths
Primary scoreline1 - 1
1 - 113%
0 - 113%
0 - 012%
Match environment
VenueHard Rock Stadium
CityMiami
Referee—
Related intelligence
Use these internal routes to keep the fixture connected to its league hub, team intelligence pages, settlement history, and the live probability feed.
Home team intelligence
Norway
Open the team intelligence page for current profile, squad context, and tracked team signals.
Away team intelligence
England
Open the team intelligence page for away-side context, form profile, and tracked team signals.
Settlement history
Verified history
Inspect settled rows, hit-rate context, and append-only result records across the wider archive.
Research notes
Football intelligence notes
Read linked methodology, volatility, and market context notes that connect this fixture to the wider SportXG research graph.
Live probability feed
Probability board
Move back to the main probability board to compare this fixture against the rest of the active slate.
Related league fixtures
These nearby league fixtures help connect the current match to the wider competition slate and keep the prediction graph navigable.
No additional tracked fixtures are available from this league right now.