VerifiedOdds snapshotIncorrect
Fixture 1379344
Premier League· Regular Season - 38
Final result
Manchester City 1 - 2 Aston Villa
Half-time
1 - 0
May 24, 2026, 23:00 GMT+8
Full-time
Fixture 1379344
Verified prediction result
Manchester City entered as a clear home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability close to the stored market expectation.
Prediction
Manchester City to win
Model probability
66%
Market implied probability
74%
Value signal
-7.6 pts
Final result
Manchester City 1 - 2 Aston Villa
Settlement
Incorrect
Confidence bucket
Moderate confidence
Volatility level
Low volatility fixture
Market divergence
Strong market divergence
Historical profile
Historical profile context was limited to the stored pre-match record.
Settlement confidence
High settlement confidence
Our prediction
Home win
Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.
Probability
66%
Value signal
-7.6%
Stored odds imply no positive edge for the model pick on this fixture.
Confidence signal
BucketModerate confidence
Probability and market view
Outcome probabilities
Manchester City (1)66%
Draw (X)16%
Aston Villa (2)18%
Model vs market
Manchester City (1)1.35 · 66% / 74%
Draw (X)5.40 · 16% / 19%
Aston Villa (2)6.80 · 18% / 15%
Settlement outcome
Predicted
Manchester City to win
Incorrect
Final result
1 - 2
Value edge
-7.6 pts
NegativeFairPositive
Lineup & shape
Lineups unavailable for this fixture. SportXG only renders formation boards when the official starting elevens are returned by the feed.
Why the model leaned Manchester City
Manchester City entered as a clear home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability close to the stored market expectation.
Primary signal
Model probability exceeded market implied probability by -7.6 pts.
Market view
Manchester City is priced at 1.35, implying a market probability of 74%.
Model view
SportXG estimated Manchester City win probability at 66%.
Interpretation
The model identified Manchester City as slightly underpriced relative to the stored market snapshot.
Risk factors
Stored market prices do not offer a positive edge on the model pick.
Recent team context
Detailed recent-form signals were not stored for this fixture.
Hidden fields:
- recent form trend
- goals average
- home / away profile
- injury load
- clean-sheet profile
- head-to-head distribution
SportXG hides incomplete evidence instead of filling gaps with generated commentary.
Prediction lifecycle
1
Generated
May 21, 2026, 23:00 GMT+8
2
Stored
Append-only log entry #376
3
Compared with market
Odds snapshot stored
4
Settled
Manchester City 1 - 2 Aston Villa
5
Result
Incorrect
Competition
Premier League
Regular Season - 38
Model version
ml-v2
Prediction ID #376
Current injury list
Manchester City
No current injury list available.
Aston Villa
No current injury list available.
Match event timeline
Event timeline is unavailable for this fixture. SportXG hides match events until a real feed is stored.
Data availability
Lineups
No dataNot stored
Match events
No dataNot stored
Statistics
No dataNot stored
Odds snapshot
StoredStored before kickoff and used for model-vs-market comparison.
Unavailable feeds are shown explicitly so users can distinguish missing data from fabricated analysis.
Related intelligence
Use these internal routes to keep the fixture connected to its league hub, team intelligence pages, settlement history, and the live probability feed.
League hub
Premier League
Return to the league intelligence page for scoring environment, volatility, and market disagreement context.
Home team intelligence
Manchester City
Open the team intelligence page for current profile, squad context, and tracked team signals.
Away team intelligence
Aston Villa
Open the team intelligence page for away-side context, form profile, and tracked team signals.
Settlement history
Verified history
Inspect settled rows, hit-rate context, and append-only result records across the wider archive.
Research notes
Football intelligence notes
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Live probability feed
Probability board
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Related league fixtures
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No additional tracked fixtures are available from this league right now.