VerifiedOdds snapshotCorrect
Fixture 1391138
La Liga· Regular Season - 32
Final result
Villarreal 2 - 1 Celta Vigo
Half-time
2 - 0
Apr 27, 2026, 03:00 GMT+8
Full-time
Fixture 1391138
Verified prediction result
Villarreal entered as a narrow home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability close to the stored market expectation.
Prediction
Villarreal to win
Model probability
40%
Market implied probability
52%
Value signal
-11.8 pts
Final result
Villarreal 2 - 1 Celta Vigo
Settlement
Correct
Confidence bucket
Fragile confidence
Volatility level
Balanced volatility fixture
Market divergence
Strong market divergence
Historical profile
Historical profile context was limited to the stored pre-match record.
Settlement confidence
High settlement confidence
Our prediction
Home win
Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.
Probability
40%
Value signal
-11.8%
Stored odds imply no positive edge for the model pick on this fixture.
Confidence signal
BucketFragile confidence
Probability and market view
Outcome probabilities
Villarreal (1)40%
Draw (X)30%
Celta Vigo (2)30%
Model vs market
Villarreal (1)1.93 · 40% / 52%
Draw (X)3.72 · 30% / 27%
Celta Vigo (2)4.09 · 30% / 24%
Settlement outcome
Predicted
Villarreal to win
Correct
Final result
2 - 1
Value edge
-11.8 pts
NegativeFairPositive
Lineup & shape
Lineups unavailable for this fixture. SportXG only renders formation boards when the official starting elevens are returned by the feed.
Why the model leaned Villarreal
Villarreal entered as a narrow home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability close to the stored market expectation.
Primary signal
Model probability exceeded market implied probability by -11.8 pts.
Market view
Villarreal is priced at 1.93, implying a market probability of 52%.
Model view
SportXG estimated Villarreal win probability at 40%.
Interpretation
The model identified Villarreal as slightly underpriced relative to the stored market snapshot.
Risk factors
Stored market prices do not offer a positive edge on the model pick.
Predicted win probability remains below the 50% confidence threshold.
Recent team context
Detailed recent-form signals were not stored for this fixture.
Hidden fields:
- recent form trend
- goals average
- home / away profile
- injury load
- clean-sheet profile
- head-to-head distribution
SportXG hides incomplete evidence instead of filling gaps with generated commentary.
Prediction lifecycle
1
Generated
Apr 26, 2026, 20:50 GMT+8
2
Stored
Append-only log entry #126
3
Compared with market
Odds snapshot stored
4
Settled
Villarreal 2 - 1 Celta Vigo
5
Result
Correct
Competition
La Liga
Regular Season - 32
Model version
legacy-audit-v1
Prediction ID #126
Current injury list
Villarreal
No current injury list available.
Celta Vigo
No current injury list available.
Match event timeline
Event timeline is unavailable for this fixture. SportXG hides match events until a real feed is stored.
Data availability
Lineups
No dataNot stored
Match events
No dataNot stored
Statistics
No dataNot stored
Odds snapshot
StoredStored before kickoff and used for model-vs-market comparison.
Unavailable feeds are shown explicitly so users can distinguish missing data from fabricated analysis.
Related intelligence
Use these internal routes to keep the fixture connected to its league hub, team intelligence pages, settlement history, and the live probability feed.
League hub
La Liga
Return to the league intelligence page for scoring environment, volatility, and market disagreement context.
Home team intelligence
Villarreal
Open the team intelligence page for current profile, squad context, and tracked team signals.
Away team intelligence
Celta Vigo
Open the team intelligence page for away-side context, form profile, and tracked team signals.
Settlement history
Verified history
Inspect settled rows, hit-rate context, and append-only result records across the wider archive.
Research notes
Football intelligence notes
Read linked methodology, volatility, and market context notes that connect this fixture to the wider SportXG research graph.
Live probability feed
Probability board
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Related league fixtures
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