VerifiedOdds snapshotIncorrect
Fixture 1391174
La Liga· Regular Season - 36
Final result
Girona 1 - 1 Real Sociedad
Half-time
0 - 1
May 15, 2026, 02:00 GMT+8
Full-time
Fixture 1391174
Verified prediction result
Girona entered as a narrow home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Prediction
Girona to win
Model probability
49%
Market implied probability
48%
Value signal
+0.9 pts
Final result
Girona 1 - 1 Real Sociedad
Settlement
Incorrect
Confidence bucket
Fragile confidence
Volatility level
Balanced volatility fixture
Market divergence
Light market divergence
Historical profile
Historical profile context was limited to the stored pre-match record.
Settlement confidence
High settlement confidence
Our prediction
Home win
Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.
Probability
49%
Value signal
+0.9%
Positive edge is computed from stored probabilities and stored odds snapshots.
Confidence signal
BucketFragile confidence
Probability and market view
Outcome probabilities
Girona (1)49%
Draw (X)19%
Real Sociedad (2)32%
Model vs market
Girona (1)2.08 · 49% / 48%
Draw (X)3.70 · 19% / 27%
Real Sociedad (2)3.15 · 32% / 32%
Settlement outcome
Predicted
Girona to win
Incorrect
Final result
1 - 1
Value edge
+0.9 pts
NegativeFairPositive
Lineup & shape
Lineups unavailable for this fixture. SportXG only renders formation boards when the official starting elevens are returned by the feed.
Why the model leaned Girona
Girona entered as a narrow home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Primary signal
Model probability exceeded market implied probability by +0.9 pts.
Market view
Girona is priced at 2.08, implying a market probability of 48%.
Model view
SportXG estimated Girona win probability at 49%.
Interpretation
The model identified Girona as slightly underpriced relative to the stored market snapshot.
Risk factors
Predicted win probability remains below the 50% confidence threshold.
Recent team context
Detailed recent-form signals were not stored for this fixture.
Hidden fields:
- recent form trend
- goals average
- home / away profile
- injury load
- clean-sheet profile
- head-to-head distribution
SportXG hides incomplete evidence instead of filling gaps with generated commentary.
Prediction lifecycle
1
Generated
May 12, 2026, 04:30 GMT+8
2
Stored
Append-only log entry #243
3
Compared with market
Odds snapshot stored
4
Settled
Girona 1 - 1 Real Sociedad
5
Result
Incorrect
Competition
La Liga
Regular Season - 36
Model version
ml-v2
Prediction ID #243
Current injury list
Girona
No current injury list available.
Real Sociedad
No current injury list available.
Match event timeline
Event timeline is unavailable for this fixture. SportXG hides match events until a real feed is stored.
Data availability
Lineups
No dataNot stored
Match events
No dataNot stored
Statistics
No dataNot stored
Odds snapshot
StoredStored before kickoff and used for model-vs-market comparison.
Unavailable feeds are shown explicitly so users can distinguish missing data from fabricated analysis.
Related intelligence
Use these internal routes to keep the fixture connected to its league hub, team intelligence pages, settlement history, and the live probability feed.
League hub
La Liga
Return to the league intelligence page for scoring environment, volatility, and market disagreement context.
Home team intelligence
Girona
Open the team intelligence page for current profile, squad context, and tracked team signals.
Away team intelligence
Real Sociedad
Open the team intelligence page for away-side context, form profile, and tracked team signals.
Settlement history
Verified history
Inspect settled rows, hit-rate context, and append-only result records across the wider archive.
Research notes
Football intelligence notes
Read linked methodology, volatility, and market context notes that connect this fixture to the wider SportXG research graph.
Live probability feed
Probability board
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Related league fixtures
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