VerifiedOdds snapshotIncorrect
Fixture 1391177
La Liga· Regular Season - 36
Final result
Valencia 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
Half-time
1 - 1
May 15, 2026, 01:00 GMT+8
Full-time
Fixture 1391177
Verified prediction result
Rayo Vallecano entered as a narrow away favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Prediction
Rayo Vallecano to win
Model probability
41%
Market implied probability
32%
Value signal
+9.3 pts
Final result
Valencia 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
Settlement
Incorrect
Confidence bucket
Fragile confidence
Volatility level
Higher volatility fixture
Market divergence
Strong market divergence
Historical profile
Historical profile context was limited to the stored pre-match record.
Settlement confidence
High settlement confidence
Our prediction
Away win
Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.
Probability
41%
Value signal
+9.3%
Positive edge is computed from stored probabilities and stored odds snapshots.
Confidence signal
BucketFragile confidence
Probability and market view
Outcome probabilities
Valencia (1)35%
Draw (X)24%
Rayo Vallecano (2)41%
Model vs market
Valencia (1)2.20 · 35% / 45%
Draw (X)3.35 · 24% / 30%
Rayo Vallecano (2)3.15 · 41% / 32%
Settlement outcome
Predicted
Rayo Vallecano to win
Incorrect
Final result
1 - 1
Value edge
+9.3 pts
NegativeFairPositive
Lineup & shape
Lineups unavailable for this fixture. SportXG only renders formation boards when the official starting elevens are returned by the feed.
Why the model leaned Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano entered as a narrow away favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Primary signal
Model probability exceeded market implied probability by +9.3 pts.
Market view
Rayo Vallecano is priced at 3.15, implying a market probability of 32%.
Model view
SportXG estimated Rayo Vallecano win probability at 41%.
Interpretation
The model identified Rayo Vallecano as slightly underpriced relative to the stored market snapshot.
Risk factors
Predicted win probability remains below the 50% confidence threshold.
Recent team context
Detailed recent-form signals were not stored for this fixture.
Hidden fields:
- recent form trend
- goals average
- home / away profile
- injury load
- clean-sheet profile
- head-to-head distribution
SportXG hides incomplete evidence instead of filling gaps with generated commentary.
Prediction lifecycle
1
Generated
May 12, 2026, 04:30 GMT+8
2
Stored
Append-only log entry #242
3
Compared with market
Odds snapshot stored
4
Settled
Valencia 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
5
Result
Incorrect
Competition
La Liga
Regular Season - 36
Model version
ml-v2
Prediction ID #242
Current injury list
Valencia
No current injury list available.
Rayo Vallecano
No current injury list available.
Match event timeline
Event timeline is unavailable for this fixture. SportXG hides match events until a real feed is stored.
Data availability
Lineups
No dataNot stored
Match events
No dataNot stored
Statistics
No dataNot stored
Odds snapshot
StoredStored before kickoff and used for model-vs-market comparison.
Unavailable feeds are shown explicitly so users can distinguish missing data from fabricated analysis.
Related intelligence
Use these internal routes to keep the fixture connected to its league hub, team intelligence pages, settlement history, and the live probability feed.
League hub
La Liga
Return to the league intelligence page for scoring environment, volatility, and market disagreement context.
Home team intelligence
Valencia
Open the team intelligence page for current profile, squad context, and tracked team signals.
Away team intelligence
Rayo Vallecano
Open the team intelligence page for away-side context, form profile, and tracked team signals.
Settlement history
Verified history
Inspect settled rows, hit-rate context, and append-only result records across the wider archive.
Research notes
Football intelligence notes
Read linked methodology, volatility, and market context notes that connect this fixture to the wider SportXG research graph.
Live probability feed
Probability board
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Related league fixtures
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