VerifiedOdds snapshotIncorrect
Fixture 1391189
La Liga· Regular Season - 38
Final result
Alaves 1 - 2 Rayo Vallecano
Half-time
1 - 0
May 24, 2026, 03:00 GMT+8
Full-time
Fixture 1391189
Verified prediction result
Alaves entered as a narrow home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Prediction
Alaves to win
Model probability
47%
Market implied probability
44%
Value signal
+3.1 pts
Final result
Alaves 1 - 2 Rayo Vallecano
Settlement
Incorrect
Confidence bucket
Fragile confidence
Volatility level
Balanced volatility fixture
Market divergence
Moderate market divergence
Historical profile
Historical profile context was limited to the stored pre-match record.
Settlement confidence
High settlement confidence
Our prediction
Home win
Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.
Probability
47%
Value signal
+3.1%
Positive edge is computed from stored probabilities and stored odds snapshots.
Confidence signal
BucketFragile confidence
Probability and market view
Outcome probabilities
Alaves (1)47%
Draw (X)34%
Rayo Vallecano (2)19%
Model vs market
Alaves (1)2.26 · 47% / 44%
Draw (X)3.35 · 34% / 30%
Rayo Vallecano (2)3.05 · 19% / 33%
Settlement outcome
Predicted
Alaves to win
Incorrect
Final result
1 - 2
Value edge
+3.1 pts
NegativeFairPositive
Lineup & shape
Lineups unavailable for this fixture. SportXG only renders formation boards when the official starting elevens are returned by the feed.
Why the model leaned Alaves
Alaves entered as a narrow home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Primary signal
Model probability exceeded market implied probability by +3.1 pts.
Market view
Alaves is priced at 2.26, implying a market probability of 44%.
Model view
SportXG estimated Alaves win probability at 47%.
Interpretation
The model identified Alaves as slightly underpriced relative to the stored market snapshot.
Risk factors
Predicted win probability remains below the 50% confidence threshold.
Recent team context
Detailed recent-form signals were not stored for this fixture.
Hidden fields:
- recent form trend
- goals average
- home / away profile
- injury load
- clean-sheet profile
- head-to-head distribution
SportXG hides incomplete evidence instead of filling gaps with generated commentary.
Prediction lifecycle
1
Generated
May 21, 2026, 03:00 GMT+8
2
Stored
Append-only log entry #362
3
Compared with market
Odds snapshot stored
4
Settled
Alaves 1 - 2 Rayo Vallecano
5
Result
Incorrect
Competition
La Liga
Regular Season - 38
Model version
ml-v2
Prediction ID #362
Current injury list
Alaves
No current injury list available.
Rayo Vallecano
No current injury list available.
Match event timeline
Event timeline is unavailable for this fixture. SportXG hides match events until a real feed is stored.
Data availability
Lineups
No dataNot stored
Match events
No dataNot stored
Statistics
No dataNot stored
Odds snapshot
StoredStored before kickoff and used for model-vs-market comparison.
Unavailable feeds are shown explicitly so users can distinguish missing data from fabricated analysis.
Related intelligence
Use these internal routes to keep the fixture connected to its league hub, team intelligence pages, settlement history, and the live probability feed.
League hub
La Liga
Return to the league intelligence page for scoring environment, volatility, and market disagreement context.
Home team intelligence
Alaves
Open the team intelligence page for current profile, squad context, and tracked team signals.
Away team intelligence
Rayo Vallecano
Open the team intelligence page for away-side context, form profile, and tracked team signals.
Settlement history
Verified history
Inspect settled rows, hit-rate context, and append-only result records across the wider archive.
Research notes
Football intelligence notes
Read linked methodology, volatility, and market context notes that connect this fixture to the wider SportXG research graph.
Live probability feed
Probability board
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Related league fixtures
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No additional tracked fixtures are available from this league right now.