VerifiedOdds snapshot
Fixture 1545418
May 26, 2026, 02:30 GMT+8
Extra time
Fixture 1545418
Verified prediction result
SC Paderborn 07 entered as a narrow home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Prediction
SC Paderborn 07 to win
Model probability
53%
Market implied probability
32%
Value signal
+20.9 pts
Final result
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg
Settlement
Pending
Confidence bucket
Fragile confidence
Volatility level
Low volatility fixture
Market divergence
Strong market divergence
Historical profile
Historical profile context was limited to the stored pre-match record.
Settlement confidence
Pending settlement
Our prediction
Home win
Stored before kickoff in append-only probability logs.
Probability
53%
Value signal
+20.9%
Positive edge is computed from stored probabilities and stored odds snapshots.
Confidence signal
BucketFragile confidence
Probability and market view
Outcome probabilities
SC Paderborn 07 (1)53%
Draw (X)25%
VfL Wolfsburg (2)22%
Model vs market
SC Paderborn 07 (1)3.10 · 53% / 32%
Draw (X)3.30 · 25% / 30%
VfL Wolfsburg (2)2.20 · 22% / 45%
Settlement outcome
Predicted
SC Paderborn 07 to win
Pending
Final result
2 - 1
Value edge
+20.9 pts
NegativeFairPositive
Lineup & shape
Lineups unavailable for this fixture. SportXG only renders formation boards when the official starting elevens are returned by the feed.
Why the model leaned SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07 entered as a narrow home favorite. SportXG estimated the {favoredSide} win probability above the stored market expectation.
Primary signal
Model probability exceeded market implied probability by +20.9 pts.
Market view
SC Paderborn 07 is priced at 3.10, implying a market probability of 32%.
Model view
SportXG estimated SC Paderborn 07 win probability at 53%.
Interpretation
The model identified SC Paderborn 07 as slightly underpriced relative to the stored market snapshot.
Risk factors
No stored risk signals were available for this fixture.
SportXG does not infer tactical, injury, or lineup risks unless those signals are present in the stored pre-match context.
Recent team context
Detailed recent-form signals were not stored for this fixture.
Hidden fields:
- recent form trend
- goals average
- home / away profile
- injury load
- clean-sheet profile
- head-to-head distribution
SportXG hides incomplete evidence instead of filling gaps with generated commentary.
Prediction lifecycle
1
Generated
May 23, 2026, 02:30 GMT+8
2
Stored
Append-only log entry #388
3
Compared with market
Odds snapshot stored
4
Settled
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg
5
Result
Pending
Competition
Bundesliga
Final
Model version
ml-v2
Prediction ID #388
Current injury list
SC Paderborn 07
No current injury list available.
VfL Wolfsburg
No current injury list available.
Match event timeline
Event timeline is unavailable for this fixture. SportXG hides match events until a real feed is stored.
Data availability
Lineups
No dataNot stored
Match events
No dataNot stored
Statistics
No dataNot stored
Odds snapshot
StoredStored before kickoff and used for model-vs-market comparison.
Unavailable feeds are shown explicitly so users can distinguish missing data from fabricated analysis.
Related intelligence
Use these internal routes to keep the fixture connected to its league hub, team intelligence pages, settlement history, and the live probability feed.
League hub
Bundesliga
Return to the league intelligence page for scoring environment, volatility, and market disagreement context.
Home team intelligence
SC Paderborn 07
Open the team intelligence page for current profile, squad context, and tracked team signals.
Away team intelligence
VfL Wolfsburg
Open the team intelligence page for away-side context, form profile, and tracked team signals.
Settlement history
Verified history
Inspect settled rows, hit-rate context, and append-only result records across the wider archive.
Research notes
Football intelligence notes
Read linked methodology, volatility, and market context notes that connect this fixture to the wider SportXG research graph.
Live probability feed
Probability board
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Related league fixtures
These nearby league fixtures help connect the current match to the wider competition slate and keep the prediction graph navigable.
No additional tracked fixtures are available from this league right now.