La LigaR1Post-match

Sevilla2 - 1Full-time · Half-time 0 - 1Rayo Vallecano

Aug 15, 2026, 19:30 UTC

Outcome prediction did not match

Pre-match prediction:: Draw
Actual outcome:: Sevilla to win

Exact score did not match

Most likely pre-match score:: 0 - 0
Actual score:: 2 - 1

Match event timeline

Latest event first

90+12'
Yellow Card
Sevilla · L. Agoume
Unsportsmanlike conduct
90+12'
Yellow Card
Rayo Vallecano · Alemao
Unsportsmanlike conduct
90+7'
Penalty
Sevilla · Peque
88'
Red Card
Sevilla · K. Salas
Serious foul
82'
Substitution
Sevilla · J. Guridi · Assist: M. Bueno
81'
Yellow Card
Sevilla · G. Suazo
Roughing
79'
Substitution
Rayo Vallecano · O. Valentin · Assist: P. Fernandez
78'
Substitution
Sevilla · Oso · Assist: C. Ejuke
78'
Substitution
Rayo Vallecano · U. Lopez · Assist: P. Diaz
76'
Yellow Card
Rayo Vallecano · F. Perez
Roughing
75'
Yellow Card
Rayo Vallecano · U. Lopez
Roughing
70'
Substitution
Sevilla · M. Sierra · Assist: R. Vargas
70'
Substitution
Rayo Vallecano · A. Garcia · Assist: F. Perez
67'
Yellow Card
Rayo Vallecano · A. Garcia
Tripping
65'
Substitution
Rayo Vallecano · R. Nteka · Assist: Alemao
64'
Substitution
Rayo Vallecano · I. Palazon · Assist: S. Camello
60'
Yellow Card
Sevilla · J. Guridi
Tripping
52'
Penalty
Sevilla · J. Guridi
46'
Substitution
Sevilla · I. Romero · Assist: R. Ure
46'
Substitution
Sevilla · N. Guilen · Assist: Peque
45+3'
Yellow Card
Sevilla · I. Romero
Roughing
32'
Goal Disallowed - Foul
Rayo Vallecano · I. Palazon
4'
Goal
Rayo Vallecano · A. Garcia

Key match statistics

SevillaRayo Vallecano

49%Possession51%

2.30xG2.00

4Shots on Goal3

13Total Shots6

1Corners2

18Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

6Shots off Goal3

3Blocked Shots0

9Inside Box5

4Outside Box1

Prediction evidence & recordPre-match record · independently reviewable

Why the model leaned draw

A model preference is not a guarantee of the result.

Generated: Aug 12, 2026, 19:30 UTC
Stored: Append-only log entry #587
Model version: ml-v2

Scorelines are evaluated over 90 minutes plus added time, excluding extra time and penalties.

Odds snapshot

Sevilla 2.22Draw 3.15Rayo Vallecano 3.30

SportXG Pre-match analysis archive

Pre-match view: Draw

The leading outcome is below 50%. This is an open contest, not a strong favourite.

Home win32.2%

Draw49.5%

Away win18.3%

Possible scorelines

Highest probability first

0 - 067.0%

0 - 113.4%

1 - 013.4%

All other scorelines: 6.2%. A single scoreline and a win/draw/loss outcome are different probabilities.

Recorded at Aug 12, 2026, 19:30 UTC

How to read this analysis

Outcome probabilities combine many possible scores. The most likely individual score can still be a draw when a team is more likely to win overall.

Data & prediction records

Pre-match predictions stay unchanged during and after play. Missing lineups or statistics mean unavailable coverage, not zero activity.

How to read this analysis · English

More matches to follow

La Liga · Nov 8, 2026, 15:15 UTCReal Sociedad vs Rayo VallecanoUpcoming La Liga · Nov 7, 2026, 13:00 UTCMalaga vs Racing Santander1st half · 0 - 0 La Liga · Nov 7, 2026, 15:15 UTCEspanyol vs Deportivo La CorunaUpcoming La Liga · Nov 7, 2026, 17:30 UTCOsasuna vs Athletic ClubUpcoming All fixtures

Sevilla2 - 1Full-time · Half-time 0 - 1Rayo Vallecano

Match event timeline

Yellow Card

Yellow Card

Penalty

Red Card

Substitution

Yellow Card

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Yellow Card

Yellow Card

Substitution

Substitution

Yellow Card

Substitution

Substitution

Yellow Card

Penalty

Substitution

Substitution

Yellow Card

Goal Disallowed - Foul

Goal

Key match statistics

Why the model leaned draw

Odds snapshot