Loading trust dashboard

Preparing probability logs, settlement summaries, and match context.

Athletic Club vs Alaves Probabilities, Market Context & Prediction Lifecycle | SportXG

La LigaR7Post-match

Athletic Club0 - 0Full-time · Half-time 0 - 0Alaves

Sep 19, 2026, 14:15 UTCSan Mamés Stadium · Bilbao

Outcome prediction did not match

Pre-match prediction:: Athletic Club to win
Actual outcome:: Draw

Exact score did not match

Most likely pre-match score:: 1 - 0
Actual score:: 0 - 0

Match event timeline

Latest event first

90+3'
Yellow Card
Athletic Club · Jesus Areso
Argument
86'
Substitution
Athletic Club · Yuri Berchiche · Assist: Nico Serrano
85'
Substitution
Alaves · Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras · Assist: Carles Aleñá
75'
Substitution
Athletic Club · Robert Navarro Muñoz · Assist: Peio Canales
75'
Substitution
Alaves · Carlos Protesoni · Assist: Antonio Blanco
75'
Substitution
Alaves · Lucas Boyé · Assist: Angel Pérez Hidalgo
71'
Yellow Card
Athletic Club · Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta
Foul
70'
Penalty
Athletic Club · Oihan Sancet
65'
Substitution
Alaves · Mariano Díaz · Assist: Toni Martínez
65'
Substitution
Alaves · Abderrahmane Rebbach · Assist: Youssef Enriquez
62'
Substitution
Athletic Club · Iñaki Williams · Assist: Maroan Sannadi
62'
Substitution
Athletic Club · Mikel Jauregizar · Assist: Alex Berenguer
45'
Substitution
Athletic Club · Johaneko Louis-Jean · Assist: Jesus Areso

Key match statistics

Athletic ClubAlaves

69%Possession31%

6Shots on Goal0

24Total Shots2

5Corners1

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

572Accurate Passes209

9Inside Box0

15Outside Box2

8Blocked Shots0

12Free Kicks14

Prediction evidence & recordPre-match record · independently reviewable

Why the model leaned Athletic Club

A model preference is not a guarantee of the result.

Generated: Sep 16, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Stored: Append-only log entry #941
Model version: ml-v2-r2

Scorelines are evaluated over 90 minutes plus added time, excluding extra time and penalties.