La LigaR7Post-match

Atletico Madrid2 - 1Full-time · Half-time 0 - 0Real Madrid

Sep 20, 2026, 14:15 UTCRiyadh Air Metropolitano · Madrid

Outcome prediction matched

Pre-match prediction:: Atletico Madrid to win
Actual outcome:: Atletico Madrid to win

Exact score did not match

Most likely pre-match score:: 1 - 0
Actual score:: 2 - 1

Match event timeline

Latest event first

89'
Substitution
Atletico Madrid · Cristian Romero · Assist: Robin Le Normand
89'
Substitution
Atletico Madrid · Lee Kang-In · Assist: Morten Hjulmand
89'
Goal
Real Madrid · Antonio Rüdiger · Assist: Bernardo Silva
82'
Substitution
Real Madrid · Jude Bellingham · Assist: Bernardo Silva
78'
Yellow Card
Real Madrid · Jude Bellingham
Foul
71'
Substitution
Real Madrid · Aurelien Tchouameni · Assist: Eduardo Camavinga
67'
Substitution
Atletico Madrid · Alejandro Baena Rodríguez · Assist: Ademola Lookman
62'
Substitution
Atletico Madrid · Jonathan David · Assist: Julián Álvarez
59'
Goal
Atletico Madrid · Jonathan David · Assist: Giuliano Simeone Baldini
54'
Substitution
Real Madrid · Arda Güler · Assist: Antonio Rüdiger
54'
Substitution
Real Madrid · Vinícius · Assist: Yan Diomande
53'
Penalty
Atletico Madrid · Alejandro Grimaldo
52'
Red Card
Real Madrid · Dean Huijsen
51'
Card upgrade confirmed
Real Madrid · Dean Huijsen
49'
Yellow Card
Real Madrid · Denzel Dumfries
Dissent
45'
Substitution
Atletico Madrid · Marc Pubill · Assist: Koke
38'
Card upgrade cancelled
Atletico Madrid · Cristian Romero
38'
Yellow Card
Atletico Madrid · Cristian Romero
Foul
35'
Yellow Card
Atletico Madrid · Marc Pubill
Foul
6'
Yellow Card
Atletico Madrid · Diego Pablo Simeone
Dissent

Key match statistics

Atletico MadridReal Madrid

61%Possession39%

9Shots on Goal3

18Total Shots8

3Corners1

19Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

556Accurate Passes337

13Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

5Blocked Shots1

6Free Kicks18

Prediction evidence & recordPre-match record · independently reviewable

Why the model leaned Atletico Madrid

A model preference is not a guarantee of the result.

Generated: Sep 17, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Stored: Append-only log entry #966
Model version: ml-v2-r2

Scorelines are evaluated over 90 minutes plus added time, excluding extra time and penalties.

SportXG Pre-match analysis archive

Pre-match view: Atletico Madrid

The leading outcome is below 50%. This is an open contest, not a strong favourite.

Home win42.7%

Draw40.5%

Away win16.8%

Possible scorelines

Highest probability first

1 - 016.8%

2 - 012.9%

1 - 111.4%

All other scorelines: 58.9%. A single scoreline and a win/draw/loss outcome are different probabilities.

Recorded at Sep 17, 2026, 00:00 UTC

How to read this analysis

Outcome probabilities combine many possible scores. The most likely individual score can still be a draw when a team is more likely to win overall.

Data & prediction records

Pre-match predictions stay unchanged during and after play. Missing lineups or statistics mean unavailable coverage, not zero activity.

How to read this analysis · English

More matches to follow

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Atletico Madrid2 - 1Full-time · Half-time 0 - 0Real Madrid

Match event timeline

Substitution

Substitution

Goal

Substitution

Yellow Card

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Goal

Substitution

Substitution

Penalty

Red Card

Card upgrade confirmed

Yellow Card

Substitution

Card upgrade cancelled

Yellow Card

Yellow Card

Yellow Card

Key match statistics

Why the model leaned Atletico Madrid